Learn
Financial plumbing explained in plain English. The mechanics that move markets, broken down so you can read them yourself.
Treasury Auctions
- Bid-to-Cover Ratio Explained: How to Read Treasury Auction DemandThe bid-to-cover ratio measures Treasury auction demand. Learn how to read it, what good vs weak ratios look like, and track live data on Acid Capitalist.
- Bond Auction Tail: What It Is, Why It Matters, and How to Read ItLearn what a bond auction tail means, how to calculate it, and why tails signal weak Treasury demand. Track live auction tails on Acid Capitalist.
- Dealer Positioned Auctions: When Primary Dealers Get Stuck With the BillHigh dealer takedown at auctions signals weak demand. Learn what dealer positioning means and how to spot it on AC.
- Treasury Auction Results Explained: What Investors Need to KnowUnderstand Treasury auction results — high yield, bid-to-cover, indirect bidders, and how to interpret them. Track every auction on Acid Capitalist.
- Treasury Indirect Bidders Explained: Tracking Foreign DemandIndirect bidders are mainly foreign central banks. Learn what their auction participation tells you about global demand for US debt.
- Yield Curve Explained: What It Tells You About the EconomyThe yield curve is the single best recession predictor. Learn how to read it and what inverted, steep, and flat curves mean.
COT Report
- CFTC Positioning Data Explained: What It Reveals About MarketsCFTC positioning data shows what institutional traders are doing in futures markets. Learn how to access it, read it, and use it in your investing.
- COT Report Signals: How to Spot Smart Money MovesLearn to identify actionable signals in the COT report — extreme positioning, divergences, and trend shifts that reveal what smart money is doing.
- How to Read the COT Report: A Practical GuideLearn how to read the CFTC Commitments of Traders report. Understand trader categories, net positioning, and what COT data reveals about market direction.
- Smart Money vs Retail Traders: Who's Winning and How to TellSmart money and retail traders move differently. Learn how to track institutional positioning using COT data on Acid Capitalist.
- VIX Explained Simply: The Market's Fear GaugeThe VIX measures expected volatility. Learn what it really means, how to read it, and what VIX futures positioning reveals.
Liquidity
- Dollar Milkshake Theory Explained: Why the Dollar Sucks Up Global CapitalBrent Johnson's dollar milkshake theory says the US dollar will strengthen as it sucks up global liquidity. Here's how it works.
- Fed Balance Sheet Explained: What $7 Trillion Means for MarketsThe Fed's balance sheet drives liquidity. Learn how QE and QT expand and shrink it, and what it means for stocks and bonds.
- Fed Funds Rate Explained: The Interest Rate That Rules Them AllThe fed funds rate is the most important interest rate in the world. Learn what it is, how it's set, and why it moves everything.
- What Is Financial Plumbing? The Hidden System That Moves MarketsFinancial plumbing is the network of repos, reserves, and Fed facilities that determines how much money flows through markets.
- FOMC Meeting Explained: What Happens and Why Markets CareThe FOMC meets 8 times a year to set interest rates. Learn what happens at these meetings and how they move markets.
- What Is a Liquidity Crisis? How to Spot One Before It HitsA liquidity crisis is when cash dries up and markets seize. Learn the warning signs and track liquidity conditions live on AC.
- Net Liquidity Formula: How to Calculate It YourselfThe net liquidity formula is Fed balance sheet minus TGA minus reverse repo. Learn each component, the calculation, and where to get the data.
- Net Liquidity and the Stock Market: The Hidden DriverNet liquidity drives stock market direction more than most realize. Learn the formula, see the correlation, and track it live on Acid Capitalist.
- Options Expiration Effect on Markets: What Happens on OpEx DayOptions expiration creates predictable volatility patterns. Learn how OpEx affects markets and when the next one hits.
- How to Predict Stock Market Direction: A Data-Driven ApproachForget crystal balls. Learn how liquidity, positioning, and auction demand give you a real edge in reading market direction.
- Quantitative Tightening Explained: How the Fed Shrinks Its Balance SheetQuantitative tightening is the Fed reducing its bond holdings. Learn how QT works, its market impact, and track it on AC's Liquidity Tracker.
- Reverse Repo Facility Explained: The Fed's Liquidity DrainThe Fed's reverse repo facility absorbs hundreds of billions in cash. Learn what it is, how it works, and why it matters for markets.
- What Is the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Why It MattersThe TGA is the government's checking account at the Fed. Learn how it drains or adds liquidity and track it live on AC.
- What Actually Moves the Stock Market? The Answer May Surprise YouIt's not earnings or news — liquidity and positioning drive most market moves. Learn the real drivers and track them live on AC.